It’s almost here, the most unpredictable Oscars ceremony in years, if not decades. Most of the attention will be focused on the night’s conclusion, where One Battle After Another and Sinners looked primed for a Best Picture photo finish, but the volatility doesn’t stop there. Three of the four acting categories are just as tightly contested, as are a slew of below-the-line prizes. Given that no voting body will ever represent a true meritocracy, the Academy is at its best when it leans mercurial… except for the poor prognosticators out there. This Sunday will be an absolute mine field for anyone trying to make a quick buck on some tinseltown wagers, so for the first year of Sherwood Likes To Watch Oscar Predictions, we’ll not only be ranking all the nominees by win equity, but also adding a confidence scale to each forecast, assigning a number from 1 through 10 to express the level of certainty in each presumed outcome. Feel free to use anything here to get a leg-up on your co-workers and friends, just don’t blame me if you bet too heavily on some 2s and 3s. Here we go!

***To break from the standard most-to-least important predictions that’s employed elsewhere, the categories here are presented in the order they were dolled out at last year’s Academy Awards***

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Sean Penn—One Battle After Another
2. Stellan Skarsgård—Sentimental Value
3. Delroy Lindo—Sinners
4. Jacob Elordi—Frankenstein
5. Benicio del Toro—One Battle After Another

The night opens with what appeared to be one of its most competitive categories… up until about two weeks ago. Back-to-back surprise wins at BAFTA (essentially the British Oscars) and The Actor Awards make Penn the odds-on favorite, but Skarsgård had previously been the front-runner, and shouldn’t be counted out now. Lindo is less likely, but after 50 years in the industry without a nomination to his name, affection could be in his favor. Elordi and del Toro started out the season as likely winners, but their momentum has ground to a halt. That said, no result would be truly shocking.

Confidence Rating: 4/10

Best Animated Feature Film:

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
5. Elio

This one seemed all wrapped up last summer, but that was before Zootopia 2 made nearly two billion bucks at the worldwide box office. It’s more competitive than it was, but any voter with kids at home is probably ready to cry uncle after infinite Demon Hunters rewatches. Everyone else is just happy to be here.

Confidence Rating: 8/10

Best Animated Short Film:

1. The Girl Who Cried Pearls 
2. Butterfly
3. Retirement Plan
4. Forevergreen
5. The Three Sisters

Even more so than other awards, the Short categories are subject to a lot of politicking, but the top two listed here are just vastly superior to their competition. The Pearls team came up short for this award in 2007, and memories of the previous snub might be enough to win in a photo finish. That said, Butterfly is gorgeous, Forevergreen could warm some hearts, and Retirement, for some reason, has built up good will since premiering at SXSW. If Sisters wins, we riot.  

Confidence Rating: 3/10

Best Costume Design:

1. Kate Hawley—Frankenstein
2. Ruth E. Carter—Sinners
3. Malgosia Turzanska—Hament
4. Miyako Bellizzi—Marty Supreme
5. Deborah L. Scott—Avatar: Fire and Ash

Unless there’s a Sinners wave on Sunday night, this one pretty firmly belongs to Frankenstein, so let’s focus instead on one of the funniest nominations of all time. Avatar being here is such a hoot, especially when neither of the previous movies snagged a costuming nod. It feels like a direct shot at Wicked: For Good, which is petty and hilarious. Y’all didn’t have to take the first one seriously, either!

Confidence Rating: 9/10

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Ryan Coogler—Sinners
2. Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt—Sentimental Value
3. Jafar Panahi—It Was Just An Accident
4. Josh Safdie & Ronald Bronstein—Marty Supreme
5. Robert Kaplow—Blue Moon

We’ll start by knocking off the bottom two; Kaplow’s nomination is his reward, and after the Page Six story about Safdie in January, it’s hard to see him being individually recognized. Panahi’s reputation is going in the opposite direction, but with Accident missing in the Best Picture line-up, he seems unlikely to nab the prize. From there it’s anyone’s guess, but if voters feel the need to get Coogler up on stage, this might be their only chance. Trier could be there for Best International Feature Film, so let’s guess they spread the wealth.

Confidence Rating: 7/10

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson—One Battle After Another
2. Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell—Hamnet
3. Guillermo del Toro—Frankenstein
4. Will Tracy—Bugonia
5. Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar—Train Dreams

This is one of the locks of the night. Anderson still doesn’t own an Oscar of any kind, and with Sinners and Coogler waiting to battle it out in Picture and Director, respectively, this is a guaranteed way to make sure PTA doesn’t go home empty-handed.

Confidence Rating: 9/10

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling:

1. Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel & Cliona Furey—Frankenstein
2. Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine & Shunika Terry—Sinners
3. Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino & Tadashi Nishimatsu—Kokuho
4. Thomas Foldberg & Anne Cathrine Sauerberg—The Ugly Stepsister
5. Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin & Bjoern Rehbein—The Smashing Machine

With all due respect to the bottom three here, it feels like voters got tired of filling out the ballot and gave into some aggressive campaigning from the little guys. Sinners is amplified by its cosmeticians; Frankenstein is defined by them. When in doubt, predict quantity over quality.

Confidence Rating: 8/10

Best Editing:

1. Andy Jurgensen—One Battle After Another
2. Michael P. Shawver—Sinners
3. Stephen Mirrione—F1
4. Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie—Marty Supreme
5. Olivier Bugge Coutté—Sentimental Value

Speaking of more being more, Battle is the longest movie here, which historically works in a movie’s favor. Not big fans of brevity out there in the city of angels, though if this one goes to Sinners, look for Best Picture to follow. F1 is an exciting alternative, but seems stronger in Best Sound.

Confidence Rating: 5/10

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Teyana Taylor—One Battle After Another
2. Amy Madigan—Weapons
3. Wunmi Mosaku—Sinners
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas—Sentimental Value
5. Elle Fanning—Sentimental Value

Fanning doesn’t really stand a chance, but everyone else here is in it. Lilleaas least so, by virtue of potential vote split with her co-star, as well as rolling snake eyes at all the major precursors. Mosaka’s surprise BAFTA victory turned some heads, only to watch Madigan snatch the lead back at the Actor Awards. That’s a lot of breaking news, which has caused the Academy to circle back to the early front runner in recent years (see: Brendan Fraser over Austin Butler, Mikey Madison over Demi Moore). Let’s guess things come back to earth and Taylor wins after all, but this is the rare honest-to-god three horse race.

Confidence Rating: 1/10

Best Production Design:

1. Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau—Frankenstein
2. Jack Fisk & Adam Willis—Marty Supreme
3. Hannah Beachler & Monique Champagne—Sinners
4. Fiona Crombie & Alice Felton—Hamnet
5. Florencia Martin & Anthony Carlino—One Battle After Another

Inevitable and frustrating in equal measure. Frankenstein’s muchness is a sight to behold, but Supreme’s Jack Fisk is a legend without a statuette, and this is some of his best work. It should be more competitive, but maybe Sinners tornado picks this one up along the way. Hamnet’s globe scene gives it the smallest of chances, which is more than Battle can say.

Confidence Rating: 6/10

Best Original Song:

1. Golden—KPop Demon Hunters
2. I Lied to You—Sinners
3. Dear Me—Diane Warren: Relentless
4. Train Dreams—Train Dreams
5. Sweet Dreams Of Joy—Viva Verdi!

In any other year, Lied would be a juggernaut. It scores the centerpiece scene of a Best Picture favorite, and stands up on its own as well. It just didn’t spend 20 weeks atop the global billboard chart. The biggest movie/radio crossover hit since My Heart Will Go On, ignoring Golden would be ignoring common sense. 

Confidence Rating: 10/10

Best Documentary Short Film:

1. All the Empty Rooms
2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
3. The Devil is Busy
4. Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”
5. Perfectly a Strangeness

With the exception of Strangeness, these nominees each weigh about a thematic metric ton, hewn to such dire subject matter as school shootings, abortion rights, and the war in Gaza. Voters were clearly in a mood, and while being the alternative option ought to give the Strangeness donkeys a chance, choosing them over a slate of such great importance seems a bit unsightly. Without any real precursors to lean on, we’ll assume that the top three listed above have a leg-up by virtue of availability, with Busy and Camera streaming on HBO Max and Rooms just one click away on Netflix. Close your eyes, and bet on the biggest at-home content provider in the world to make good on their incomparable reach.

Confidence Rating: 2/10

Best Documentary Feature Film:

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
3. The Alabama Solution
4. Come See Me in the Good Light
5. Cutting Through Rocks

Known as the most persnickety branch of the Academy, the documentarians are famous for pulling a fast one on the most widely seen titles at their disposal… when it comes to nominations. Once a movie like Neighbor, which has probably been watched by more people than all the rest of the field combined, makes the final five, it almost always wins. Alabama’s HBO Max availability and Putin’s subject matter keep them in the mix, but there’s an obvious favorite here.

Confidence Rating: 7/10

Best Sound:

1. Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo & Juan Peralta—F1
2. Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor & Steve Boeddeker—Sinners
3. José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio & Tony Villaflor—One Battle After Another
4. Amanda Vil—Sirāt 
5. Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern—Frankenstein

The cars! They are so loud! The fact that Sinners is the most nominated film of all time and revolves around music makes it the clear spoiler, but the Academy has already fielded enough snickering over the F1 Best Picture nomination. Sending it packing without a single trophy would look like an admission of guilt, and these voters are nothing if not proud. Again, so loud!

Confidence Rating: 6/10

Best Visual Effects:

1. Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon & Daniel Barrett—Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter & Donnie Dean—Sinners
3. Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington & Keith Dawson—F1
4. David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan & Neil Corbould—Jurassic World Rebirth
5. Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen & Brandon K. McLaughlin—The Lost Bus

A perfect time for a bathroom break. No suspense here, just a measly technical Oscar for a franchise that’s been banished from the Big Kid’s table.

Confidence Rating: 10/10

Best Casting:

1. Francine Maisler—Sinners
2. Gabriel Domingues—The Secret Agent
3. Cassandra Kulukundis—One Battle After Another
4. Jennifer Venditti—Marty Supreme
5. Nina Gold—Hamnet

Our first new category since 2001! The overriding assumption that Sinners will parlay its Best Ensemble victory at the Actor Awards to a win here has some obvious logic, but this is uncharted territory, and anyone who feels certain about the outcome is lying to themselves. Agent is an underdog in every lineup it’s a part of, and this would be a great way to get it some recognition. The rampant use of non-professionals in Battle and Supreme make them viable options, especially if the former goes on a tear throughout the night. Hamnet’s inclusion is more of a head-scratcher, but again, no one really knows what’s possible just yet.

Confidence Rating: 1/10

Best Live-Action Short Film:

1. Two People Exchanging Saliva
2. The Singers
3. Jane Austin’s Period Drama
4. A Friend of Dorothy
5. Butcher’s Stain

To anyone who caught the Live-Action shorts at their local theater and has somehow forgotten Saliva already, it’s the one that’s twice as long and twice as good as everything else in the slate. Singers has Netflix campaign money, Drama is appealingly cheeky, and Dorothy warms hearts, but here’s hoping (and predicting) that quality wins out.

Confidence Rating: 4/10

Best Cinematography:

1. Michael Bauman—One Battle After Another
2. Autumn Durald Arkapaw—Sinners
3. Dan Laustsen—Frankenstein
4. Adolpho Veloso—Train Dreams
5. Darius Khondji—Marty Supreme

All deserving candidates, each competing in the Best Picture race, but Battle‘s wins at BAFTA and ASC (the cinematographer’s guild) would be foolish to ignore. But keep an eye out for Sinners; not only was camera work integral to the film’s marketing campaign, but this prize has never gone to a woman in the ceremony’s 98-year history, and an Arkapaw victory would be a moment.

Confidence Rating: 6/10

Best International Feature:

1. Sentimental Value
2. The Secret Agent
3. It Was Just An Accident
4. Sirāt 
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab

After winning the Palme d’Or at last summer’s Cannes Film Festival, Accident looked like a lock here, and a dark horse for the night’s top honor, but since missing out on a Best Picture nomination, Jafar Panahi’s film has been reduced to an intriguing third wheel. The Brazilian voters that led the charge for I’m Still Here last year shouldn’t be underestimated, but Value pairs its Picture and Screenplay citations with four acting nods, Best Editing, and Best Director. That’s a little too much love to dismiss. 

Confidence Rating: 7/10

Best Original Score:

1. Ludwig Goransson—Sinners
2. Jonny Greenwood—One Battle After Another
3. Max Richter—Hamnet
4. Alexandre Desplat—Frankenstein
5. Jerskin Fendrix—Bugonia

Goransson’s work ties his movie together in a way that no other combatants can claim, which might have been enough on its own, but the rest of the field has been cancelling itself out to boot. Fendrix’s notes are too atonal and intentionally off-putting, Desplat is just doing what Desplat does, and Richter’s repurposing of On the Nature of Daylight hasn’t gone unnoticed. Greenwood is overdue, but the Battle score is far from his finest work. 

Confidence Rating: 9/10

Best Actor:

1. Timothée Chalamet—Marty Supreme
2. Michael B. Jordan—Sinners
3. Wagner Moura—The Secret Agent
4. Ethan Hawke—Blue Moon
5. Leonardo DiCaprio—One Battle After Another

The best slate of Actor noms in years has led to the tightest race in recent memory. DiCaprio would be shocking, but we’ve seen Best Picture winners hoover up unexpected golden men in the recent past. Hawke has industry affection on his side, but if an Oscar was coming his way, we probably would have seen the signs by now. Jordan’s precursor trophy case was just as vacant as Hawke’s until he stole Chalamet’s prize at the Actor awards, and in the biggest twist of all, Robert Ayamayo took home the BAFTA for I Swear, a flick that hasn’t even made its way to U.S. theaters just yet. Again, that Brazilian voting block makes Moura a tasty underdog pick, but the same thinking that went into the Taylor Best Supporting Actress prediction applies here. Timmy Time had been on the calendar for months before recent events threw everything into disarray; in a dead heat like this, smart money is on voters looping back to where they started.

Confidence Rating: 2/10

Best Director:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson—One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler—Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao—Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier—Sentimental Value
5. Josh Safdie—Marty Supreme

Even if Sinners ends up topping Battle in the end, Anderson feels safe here. The ‘it’s time’ narrative is deafeningly loud, and a win at the Directors Guild is essentially a promise. PTA took that prize last month, and if he follows it up with a victory here, he’ll be the 22nd helmer in the last 26 years to follow that exact path. How’s that for predictive?

Confidence Rating: 8/10

Best Actress:

1. Jesse Buckley—Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne—If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve—Sentimental Value
4. Kate Hudson—Song Sung Blue
5. Emma Stone—Bugonia

There was a moment there, when Byrne was gobbling up critic’s citations left and right, where it felt like she could pull a Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) on Buckley’s Cate Blanchett (Tár), but that all but vanished once the vetted institutions started weighing in. Hamnet’s star has been utterly dominant in the lead up to March 15th, and looks to be her film’s sole victor. Quite possibly the night’s biggest certainty.

Confidence Rating: 10/10

Best Picture:

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Sentimental Value
5. Frankenstein
6. Marty Supreme
7. The Secret Agent
8. Bugonia
9. Train Dreams
10. F1

Congratulations to Hamnet, Sentimental Value, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Bugonia, Train Dreams, and F1: you will always be Best Picture nominees. The only two movies that stand any real chance of being crowned are One Battle After Another and Sinners. The former’s rampage through the precursors was of historic proportions, so why does this feel so close? Winning big at the Actor Awards felt meaningful, as did the record-breaking 16 nominations, but it’s more the genuine adoration that still surrounds Sinners almost a year after its release. It would still be an upset, especially with Paul Thomas Anderson looking set for coronation, but something’s in the air.

Confidence Rating: 5/10